I hear all these endless polls of "likely voters", "independent voters", "registered voters", etc, on radio, television, and online. Who are these people? Seriously, I have no idea who they are. Let me explain:
I have a land line phone and a cell phone. The land line is vital for the home office, and will not be going away. Having a land line is more and more anachronistic in today's world. Yet I've NEVER been polled by a reputable polling firm. I HAVE been push polled by far right wing organizations twice, one robocall for all white, male, Republican tools for president in 2012, and one human call asking if I'd support Qualye's idiot frat boy son (when I am not even in his district and my area code is distinctly NOT Scottsdale). I HAVE been called endlessly by both Democrat and Republican candidates. On the right, most of the robocalls were voiced by John McCain or other soulless talking heads. The Democratic calls have been from much less rehearsed humans with good intentions and shaky delivery, asking that I vote for my current congressman Raul.
I've never been called to ask how I will vote by a reputable polling firm, yet I have a land line. I AM in a contentious congressional district. So who is being polled?
My guess is, they're calling the same people, over-and-over again, from poll to poll. This would reduce costs (of dead end calls), increase speed of gathering results, and FURTHER increase polarized results. I think that the polling organizations are calling
- tea partyers
- the unemployed (who are often home all day)
- people who enjoy being phone polled
These polling organizations are not calling everyday Americans, or people without land lines, or Independents who are not aligned with a political party.
So my theory is, these polls are all very biased, and the results on Tuesday will not be as devastating to the Democrats as all the pundits are projecting they will be. But of course, this theory relies upon an informed, rational electorate who understands the consequences of their actions in the voting booth, and not a bunch of short sighted, impatient, sophomoric, mis-guided, highly motivated hyper-partisans. We shall see just how "accurate" or mis-guided all of the projected polls are, by Wednesday morning. And if the extreme right does elect alot of candidates, well, good luck to you boys and girls - you get what you asked for.
1 year ago