Where Is 9M-MRO?

9M-MRO is the tail number of the Boeing 777-2H6-ER aircraft that was designated as Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing last week.  The location of the aircraft, crew and passengers, remains unknown, but on Friday night (US time) the Malaysian government issued a statement that they believe the plane's South and Westerly flight paths towards the Indian Ocean - instead of the NE direct route intended to go to Beijing over the South China coast line - were the result of a hijacking, and are now treating the disappearance of the plane as a crime.

While this may sound grotesque, I hope a debris field or fuel slick in the Indian Ocean are found soon.  Why?  Because if the passengers are still alive, they are imprisoned, hostages, or worse.  If they are all dead, then their families can begin to have closure and mourn their losses.  

Why would they be alive, and the plane possibly landed somewhere?  Well, consider the following evidence:
- Rolls Royce's monitoring system (9M-MRO was equipped with RR engines, instead of GE90s) continued to get satellite "pings" from the plane, for more than an hour past the time it was supposed to land in Beijing; meaning, the engines were still on, and still running.
- The built in Boeing transponder that sends out location signals was manually turned off over the middle of the gulf of Thailand, just after Kuala Lumpur air traffic control handed over guidance of the air craft to Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon, in southern Vietnam).  
- The pilots (Zaharie Ahmad Shah [Zaharie was also qualified as a flight instructor] & Fariq Abdul Hamid) never checked in with Ho Chi Minh city.  They told Kuala Lumpur "Good night", and then turned their plane around, away from the Beijing flight path, over the Malaysian mountains, and out towards the Indian Ocean.
- yes, both the pilot and co-pilot were Muslims
- Not a single cell phone, black berry, iPad, iPhone, smart phone, smart watch, laptop, tablet, or other device carried by the 227 passengers has been answered, or has sent out any kind of tweet, FB post, distress call, text message, or anything else.  If the passengers (from 15 countries, most of them device happy Chinese) are alive, all of their electronic devices have been totally confiscated.  Missing not a single one.  If the mobile devices had been destroyed, then they would not be "going to voice mail" or ringing without being answered.  They would be giving "no longer in service" responses, from their respective mobile provider networks.

So where is 9M-MRO?  Why don't I call it MH370?  Well...  my theory is that it will never be seen again as MH370, unless it has crashed somewhere and a debris field is found, or a fuel slick spotted in the Indian Ocean.  Instead, either a "State Actor" or a "Non State Actor" has stolen the plane, killed or imprisoned everyone on it, and they are in the process of re-painting it to look like another country's airline 777...  probably a United States based airline, like Delta, American, or United, or a Emirates or Qatar airlines 777.  If there is an old, abandoned WWII runway somewhere near the Indian Ocean, and Zaharie was able to land his plane there, my guess is it being repainted, the electronics are being re-configured to send out a less conspicuously serialized signature that no longer resembles MH370, and the plane is being loaded with fuel, and (probably) explosives, or a WMD.  

What would a State Actor do with such a stolen plane?  Well, "Red Dawn" showed what Cubans could do to the US with troop carriers disguised as commercial airlines.  Tom Clancy probably has several novels that could provide a road map as well.  It would have to be a state actor with few connections to the west - like North Korea or one of the former Soviet "disillusioned-stans".  If it is a non state actor, like Al Qaeda, Basque Separatists, Philippine Separatists, Shining Path, or a Bond villain, then all sorts of terrible things could be planned.
- fly it into a large commercial building, ubiquitous in SE Asian capitals
- fly it into a military base, again, ubiquitous 
- fly it into an LNG plant in the gulf (many to choose from)
- fly it near a US Carrier task force, and detonate a nuclear device within the plane, before the navy shoots it down
- land it in a Western airport, and then detonate the WMD (nuclear, chemical, or biological, basically destroying that airport for that city)
- execute one passenger every time a US drone strike takes place, anywhere in the world (it is well known that Al Qaeda fears drone strikes more than any thing else), delivering the video of the passenger execution to Al Jazeera each time it does, so it can't be traced as to where).  With 227 passengers, that will halt the drone  strike program.  

Like I said, I hope a debris field is found soon, and the families can begin the mourning and closure process.  If their family members are still alive, nefarious things are going to happen to them, or they will be used as bargaining chips and more pain and suffering and death will be brought to more people in the world.  

I theorized this on Monday of this week, when everyone in the media and all pilot experts were saying "it is too early to tell" and "we should not speculate".  BS.  Many humans are evil, and the smart ones who are evil have nasty plans for the rest of us.  Plan ahead to deal with such evil, and minimize its impact on the world.

United States of Drone Strikes

If you're not comfortable with being a country who reigns death from above onto not just jihadists planning on killing Americans, but on everyone else around them, , check out the Bureau for Investigative Journalism:

http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2013/01/03/obama-2013-pakistan-drone-strikes/

They've been keeping track of all the drone strikes the US has been doing around the world.  In 2013, we've gotten better, killing just 3 children (and a 153 terrorists).  I don't think any child should die from a drone strike - or killer robot in the sky strike - and probably most of the 153 terrorists who've been killed had 1 or 2 or more kids themselves, who will each grow up to try and avenge their fathers by strapping on a bomb, or trying to learn to fly a plane into a building, or blowing up a ship in the gulf of Adan, or driving a truck into an embassy laden with explosives, or something more heinous.  

I never was comfortable with W's targeted robot killings.  I am still not comfortable with the Obama administration's (the CIA's mostly) targeted killings.   If Venezuela, Iran or Cuba had these, and they were flying over the US or Canada or any of our allies, think we'd be pissed off about it?  Do you think we'd be "at war" with that country (not just the organization piloting the drone, but the who country who harboured them?).

I don't know what a good ratio of "terrorists : children" kills are.   I would think "zero" would be the best number.  Yes, there's not been a successful terrorist attack on the US since Obama took office - the underwear bomber blowing his own genitals off doesn't count.  But if it was President Palin, or President Romney, and they were blowing up Yemenis, Pakistani, Sudanese, Malian, Somalian, or any other country's citizen, even if those citizens were really really evil people who wanted to kill Americans but who had not done anything against America yet...  do you think the nation would be OK with it?

Pakistan Loves Romney

When I heard republican pundits on the radio earlier this week express how they think America has "lost standing in the world" since President Obama was elected, I thought my head would explode.   No, we've not lost standing...  in fact, most of the civilized world wants Obama to be re-elected.  Except Pakistan of course.   They're tired of Pakistani Intelligence sanctioned drone strikes inside of Pakistan, and blame it all on the US, whenever one goes wrong.  They'd rather have Romney elected (yeah, drone strikes would CERTAINLY go down under a republican..  sure).  Link here.  Too bad the whole world doesn't get to vote for 'President of the Free World'.

AT-AT Cross Section

Of course, Defense Spending is still going to increase.

Banishing The Ghosts Of The Carter Administration's Failures

Photoillustration by John Ritter.

As a kid who watched the TV news reports in 1980 of the botched "Operation Eagle Claw" in the Iranian desert, bewildered and confused how US Special Forces could get themselves killed in a failed rescue attempt, I read Nicolas Schmidle's piece in The New Yorker this morning (link here) about Operation Neptune's Spear with a renewed sense of pride and satisfaction.  In my perspective, 31 years later, this piece could have been titled "Banishing The Ghosts Of The Carter Administration's Failures" - showing that a Democratic President can be the commander in chief and make competent decisions to set national security policy into motion.

It's an excellent piece, factual, revealing, straight forward, and well worth the read.  Highly recommended.  No hype.  It fills in the gaps that I had in my mind - many of them which had lingered for decades.  And, it reassures me that I voted for the right guy, who makes good decisions, and who is a nice person, a decent man.  "Obama wanted to know how [The US Pakistani former desk CIA job translator] 'Ahmed' had kept locals at bay; he also inquired about the fallen Black Hawk and whether above-average temperatures in Abbottabad had contributed to the crash." He wanted to understand the human aspect AND get to the ROOT CAUSE of the biggest mechanical failure issue! 
...and then... about the Belgian Malinois, Cairo:  "I want to meet that dog".  It almost brought a tear to my eye.  =)

Where's The Vs?

While in India, I watched India Television News after the Osama Pakistan operation.  ("Was PAK in Cahoots?" - they actually said "cahoots" on the news).  I noticed that the Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, and Indians, don't like their W's.  The following is a list of just a few words I heard on the morning news from the large screen HD TV, as I did yoga in my room each morning, bed-side:
Inwestigation
Wexed
Inwented
Wery Wery (as in "Wery Wery Cautious")
Weer off course
Awailable
Waulted arches
Human Rights Wiolations
Inwaluable
Inwested

From time to time, I had to do a double take to make sure Elmer Fudd was not speaking.  Maybe it is some sort of passive-aggressive pro-German / anti-English sentiment from the former East India Company colony? 

Enjoy The Silence

I've tried watching "Times Now" - India's version of CNN / BBC, and while their obsessive coverage of Pakistan's harbouring of Osama Bin Laden provides a unique insight (since no one hates Pakistan more as a nation, than India)  the majority of their BLARING VOLUME advertisements are a cacophony of Hinglish.  Hindi-Hindi-Hindi-great experiences... Hindi-Hindi-Hindi-amazing offer.  Hindi-Hindi-Hindi-are you okay? Hindi-Hindi-Hindi-false alarm.  The acCENTS emphaSIZED on all the wrong syllabelS causes the verbal interpretation centers in my brain to cramp up.  I've taken to working and getting ready in my room in silence.  Much more tranquil. 

The Ultimate Grudge Match

NPR is running a story today (link here) on the Cricket match tomorrow, between Pakistan and India.  Having visited India in the past, and worked with both Pakistanis and Indians, I CANNOT think of another match, anywhere in the world, between ANY rivals, that is as extreme as this one.  Having fought 3 wars this century, and both having been part of the same British colony (from whom they learned the sport), separated by an arbitrary line drawn up hastily in just 3 days by a rather clueless British politician, both Pakistan and India share the same continent, many similar cuisines, a hatred of the British, a visceral hatred of each other, and a passion for cricket.  I've heard both young and old, men and women, rich and poor, voice their extreme antipathy of their neighboring country.

Bears / Packers?  Yankees / Red Sox?  Miami / Jets?  Eagles / Steelers?  No, none of these rivalries have even a fraction of the same intensity that India / Pakistan does in cricket.

Kill The Reasonable Moderates?

Steve Inskeep interviews (link here) Rashid Rahman, editor of Pakistan's Daily Times after the funeral and burial of Punjab province Governor Salman Taseer who was killed by a cowardly fundamentalist assassin - shot repeatedly in the back with an AK-47.  The proud, deranged, grossly misguided - and perhaps insane -  assassin failed miserably in his sworn duty as a body guard to protect the governor, and decided instead to narrowly interpret the Koran as he saw fit, murdering a respected, elected official, who he judged as being a defender of "blasphemers against Islam."

This is akin to a "Christian [TM]" sniper shooting a gynecologist who gives abortions, an IRA bomber murdering a policeman, a Nazi SS member killing a Jew, or a Sunni killing a Shia (whom the most radically fundamentalist Wahhabi Sunnis consider heretics).  It's madness.  Pure, evil, visceral human hatred, fueled by misguided fundamentalist religion.  Except this time, instead of just an individual, this inept, disloyal, cowardly, pathetic, sad little boy who thought he was a man killed a vocal, moderate leader.  Maybe the moderate majority of main stream Pakistanis who can no longer stomach their vocal fundamentalist minority country-men will start to stand up against such violent extremism.  Or maybe, the assassin will be let go with a slap on the wrist, with friends in the ISI.

Why Do They Build On The Flood Plain?

15 years ago, when we had dial up, Dr Desert Flower and I bought Monkey Puzzle's "Joie de Groissant" album on CD. I still love CDs, and have not embraced DDF's old 4 gig discarded Ipod, preferring instead to rotate CDs in an out of my car, office, and living room CD players. No genius mixes or shuffles necessary, just a little laser is all.

The 2nd song on Joie de Groissant is "Flood Plain". I've searched and searched on Google, and I cannot find the lyrics posted (from dial up days perhaps). So I will post them here:

Trees torn from their roots, roads washed away, leaving no escape
wrestled free fences lay flatten by the river, rolling in waves
verdant fields they file down in shadows deep and spilling over the threshold of our home
this life we've built is drowning in too much of a good thing

WHY? Why did we build on the flood plain?
WHY? Why did we build on the flood plain?
WHY? Why did we build on the flood plain?

We built our home on this low land so we knew we were tempting fate
We ignored our old gramps warnings, 'cause we really loved this place
I guess we loved its lushness, it seduced us with its promise, that everything we planted here would grow
But now our crops are drowning is it time to let them go?

WHY? Why did we build on the flood plain?
WHY? Why did we build on the flood plain?
WHY? Why did we build on the flood plain?

Now, are we sinking back down?

I bring this up, because as we drove around the NE Phoenix valley, we kept passing over this apparently superfluous earthen dam. It tries to wall off the northern valley from some massive invasion of water from Flagstaff perhaps, but pesky things like bridges and overpasses keep penetrating it (here). Apparently, there was some post-deluvian reaction to build a 20 foot high wall when the northern valley was inhabited by Saguaros, jack rabbits, and citrus groves. Maybe they were expecting a massive deluge that's never arrived?

If there was truly a risk of a flood, then shouldn't there be flood gates at each of the road crossings that penetrate the wall.? Googling the "Phoenix Flood" or "Great Phoenix Flood" yielded something interesting though. There's been some massive floods of limited areas - the Gila River and Salt Rivers over-flowing, a small spot up near the mountains around Safford AZ received "1,740 cubic feet per second" in 1974. In the 80s, the Salt River (which runs beside the PHX air port) was 2 miles wide and flooded most of down town through the Cave Creek tributary.

So history has shown at the entire Phoenix valley (Tempe, Mesa, Glendale, Phoenix, Scottsdale) lays within a 100 to 500 year flood plain, theoretically (FEMA links here and here). Since the floods of the 70s and 80s, the state of Maricopa has implemented wide spread spill ways and flood control in all new construction, so such severe flash floods as they had in the 70s are much less likely. The Adobe Dam on the north side of town was built in 1980 to attempt to protect Phoenix from a flooding of Skunk Creek north of town... I just hope that it never rains so much here (or sea levels rise hundreds of feet - link here and here) to flood my home that is at 1100 feet elevation. Of course Roosevelt Dam breaking, 50 miles east of town, would have cataclysmic results for the entire valley, now that it is full of water.

Having evolved in a generation that debuted Red Dawn, The Day After, Omega Man, Escape From New York, Death Race 2000, the 3 Mad Maxes, Threads, the Terminator, and reading Larry Niven's Lucifer's Hammer, Larry King's The Stand... I figured that someday, 'when I grew up' I'd need to
- have a home on the back side of a mountain a few miles outside of a major metropolitan area, to guard against the 1 mile high detonated thermonuclear warheads tipping Russian ICBMs.
- have no one up hill of me, so that there was a clear field of fire to take out marauding zombies, hordes of post-apocalyptic cannibals, invading Cubans, and others who would want to do me harm who were capable of climbing any higher ground
- keep enough sturdy raw materials, fasteners, and a single phase welder on-hand to be able to fabricate impromptu armor plating and bracketry
- store up enough provisions to ride out 2 years of nuclear winter (but I'm not LDS, so in AZ it's kind of strange to try and do so)
- be well armed, and up to date on weapons training
- maintain a working electrical generator, capable of powering my home
- secure an adequate water supply (12,000 gallons of pool, that could be covered / protected from fallout or pillaging, and made potable)
- not live in the flood plain

I've got the last 4 covered (from a 100 year flood, but I'd like to get to the 500 year level, as the Indus River just had). Now I need to work on the first 4. It's not something that I'm actively developing everyday... but it Is always in the back of my mind. =)

Stones Into Schools - Read It

While relaxing Poolside at the Amara resort in Sedona this weekend (for our anniversary we stayed at the L'Auberge de Sedona, the sister property, which had no pool), I finished Greg Mortenson's Stones into Schools. It's given me hope that SOMETHING constructive can come out of Afghanistan. It's not by force, not by aggression or imposed rule - it's by channeling the free market.

Yes, the free market. That invisible hand, who has crept into land locked Afghanistan via cell phone and satellite dish. The poorest and most illiterate of blue collar, semi-agrarian, subsistence farmers and unskilled laborers, and their dirt poor wives, are getting cell phones. Not cars, or refrigerators, or large screen TVs, no. But they are getting cell phones. And those cell phones are CONNECTING them to their relatives outside of Kabul, out in Herrat, down in Helmand Province, over in Uzbekistan, everywhere. And these very poor, mostly illiterate people, are gaining connectivity that they NEVER had before. Not during the Russian occupation, or the 3 previous British land wars of retribution. Not during Alexander the Great's invasion millennium ago. Now women are talking to other women on cell phones in Afghanistan, and wow, is it starting to make a difference.

In America, Idiocracy uses their cell phones to text message while driving, take videos of bigoted comedians or subway platform police brutality. But in Afghanistan, cell phones are being used to discuss upcoming elections, where schools are being built, where vocational centers for women are being built, which villages are being threatened by Taliban, etc. They are empowering women and enabling connectivity that has never before been possible. The illiterate husbands want their wives to go to these local classes, so that they can Earn More Money, to help the household. More work on the women's shoulders, yes, but the Afghans are an incredibly resilient people.

Mortenson says it best: "I knew this idea of yours was popular," I remarked to Wakil later that afternoon, after we had toured several more facilities, "but you didn't tell me how many there were or how quickly this concept was growing."
"It's hard to keep count - in another four months, we'll probably have three dozen [women's vocational centers]" he said. "When women take charge things start to get out of control really fast."

Wakil Karimi is the Central Asia Institute's (CAI's) Afghanistan manager. A former refugee from the Afghan war, who learned English in Pakistan, and worked in a Western Hotel at the front desk, Wakil relentlessly pursued Greg Mortenson and his team to build girls schools and vocational centers closer to Kabul - instead of at the end of the road of known existence. Once Wakil's idea caught on, the slow process of building schools ramped up exponentially. There's a 130 women's schools now in Afghanistan that the CAI has grown.

The women who attend these schools are taught at night, for 3 or 4 hours, after all of their maternal house work is done. They're learning to read and write Dari, Pashtun, Arabic, Urdu, English. They are learning skills in weaving, child care, disease prevention, domestic skills, and basic cell phone usage. yes, cell phone usage - so that they can call their sisters, girl friends, mothers, cousins, old friends, in other parts of the country and in other countries, to provide a neural social network. A "counter insurgency" to fight back against the Taliban. These women sit cross legged on dirt floors in adobe mud buildings, 40 to 60 packed into the room, eager & hungry for basic knowledge.

Reading this gave me hope for the first time. The Taliban are a minority Pashtun force, governed by Wahhabi Sunni fundamentalists, funded by rich Saudies. They are only 40% of the Afghan population, and the Afghan population is nearly as multi-ethnic as the United States. And more than 1/2 of those Pashtuns, are women (30 years of war, and stupid military tactics by the Taliban have culled the male Pashtun population pretty severely). Like the Basiji in Iran, the Deobandi Wahhabi of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the Khmer Rouge of Cambodia, and the Tea Partyers and Libertarian Militias of the United States, the fundamentalist Pashtun males are a small, violent, hateful, vocal minority. Instead of UN sanctions, or the 82nd Airborne, or a NATO imposed peace, the Petraeus counter insurgency in Afghanistan and NW Pakistan needs to continue to focus on education for women, home grown solutions, listening to village elders and helping them to affect long lasting positive societal change. Turn the neck, the head will turn as well.

If you'd like to have hope about Afghanistan, read Stones into Schools. It's made a significant improvement in my outlook on Afghanistan.

Chup!

The lovely and melodic Pakistani singers Zeb and Haniya sing beautifully. Attached here is a link to an acoustic version of their hit song "Chup!" - which in Urdu ( چپ,) means "Stop!" or "Hush!" (link here). The song is very simple, and a catchy tune - I heard it on BBC radio this afternoon. The essence of the song, as Zeb explained, is "Hush! it's time for love".

I see no better way of fighting fanatical Islamic fundamentalist extremism than to promote positive, societal change, from within. It's just too bad they didn't sing this in Pashtoon - the native tongue of coward Mullah Omar, the bastard father of the heretical Taliban movement. But singing (OMG! Singing! It might lead to dancing!) in Urdu, spoken by about 40% of Pakistanis, and Pakistan being where the majority of the Taliban training camps and madrasses are, is a good start. And the mega-flood that is covering 1/8th of Pakistan currently, they need all the love they can get.

You can see a video of an acoustic performance of "Chup!" here (link) but it's low quality. The "Coke Studios" youtube versions aggravate me as being way way way over-produced and bollywood sensationalized to the point of being creepy - making me wince. Just let the lovely girls with the sweet voices sing. That's enough for me.

"There is nothing to be gained by staying"

William Pfaff has a good article posted (link here) on his website this week. It talks about Afghanistan in depth. The gist of it is "There is nothing to be gained by staying". After having read 4 hard back books that were written in the last 3 years about the region (links here and here and here), I have to say, I agree with Pfaff.

We will never establish a strong central governed, Westernized, non-misogynist, equal rights, equitable, proud American-like Democracy in Afghanistan. There's too many fundamentalists, the environment is too harsh, the peasant subsistence farmers are far too desperate, the drug trade is far too firmly entrenched, graft and corruption far too wide spread, and we are funding the Pakistani ISI to the tunes of BILLIONS a year, who then fund and defend the Taliban.

It's time to draw down, and get the hell out of there. W and Gen Franks and Rummy and the Gen Sharif of Pakistan enabled 4000 Al Qaeda to escape, in Pakistani military airlift transports in 2002 (link here). Let Pakistan deal with it now. They hate Americans (95% of Pakistanis) there anyways.

Pilotless Drones in the US?

Pilotless drones being licensed by the FAA, to be flown in US air space? (link here). Not a very good idea. I've been in too many commercial aircraft, having too many "course changes" to avoid other aircraft - all of which had live pilots in cock pits - to think that putting some / dozens / hundreds of pilotless drones in the US is a good idea.

Pakistan, Yemen, Afghanistan, Somalia have much fewer commercial flights, private planes, electrical transmission lines and signal towers in their air space... and alot more "wanted dead or alive" terrorists on their ground. I do not think that pilotless drones in the US will have a positive result.

Ewans Style & Perspective

I finished Martin Ewans' "Afghanistan, a Short History of Its People and Politics" this week (while sipping a glass of Spanish red, in the bath tub, a nice way to end a book). I found Ewans' writing style to be logical, chronologically consistent, and straight forward. That's the way a historical record is supposed to be, in my opinion. Ewans' perspective on Afghanistan corroborated Ahmed Rashid's to a great extent - which was interesting, since Rashid is a Pakistani national who lives and works in Lahore as a journalist, and Sir Martin Ewans was the Head of Chancery in Kabul for the British Diplomatic Service.

Both authors' accounts of this land locked region that clings to it's 13th century mindset while embracing 21st century guerrilla tactics, weaponry, and fundamentalist-Islamic-rural-rule-by-fear-and-terror parallel each other quite well. Rashid's "Please do not abandon my troubled region Western Powers, after you funded and fostered these fanatics to fight the Soviets!!" pleas contrast to Ewans' "this rural society has been chronically corrupt and without a strong central government for centuries, no Czar, British Monarch, Parliament, Polit Bureau, Shah, Maharajah, Greek or American conquering force will ever be able to impose a sustainable, equitable (by Western Standards), tolerant society here" perspective. I gotta tell you... I tend to agree with Ewan's implied conclusions. Sorry Rashid. Enough non-Afghan blood and treasure has been spilled there.

Petraeus Is Soft On Terror

MTP this morning had an interesting interview with CentCom Commander General David Petraeus. He's soft on terror. He
- wants Gitmo Closed
- has been against torture since me stated publicly in 2003 as the commander of the 101st Airborne that the 101st would obey the Geneva Conventions and not torture
- thinks diplomacy s more important than military strength and is delusional enough to think that Pakistan's recent cooperation in capturing Taliban leaders is credited to diplomatic cooperation instead of just bullying the ISI as W's administration used to
- supports having gays in the military (or at least does not say it''s a bad thing).

What's wrong with this guy? Doesn't he read (and obey) the RNC's talking points?

Oh that's right.. he's an elitist PhD... what does he know? =)

Moyers' Excellent Program Last Friday Night

Bill Moyers always does excellent work. This year's interviews are no exception. Friday night he spoke with Thomas Frank (link here), and the interview was infuriating to me. "Down the memory hole" indeed.

Then, Bill had a wonderful and uplifting interview with Greg Mortenson (link here), author of Three Cups of Tea (which I have given as Christmas Gifts) and now, Stones Into Schools. the key take aways I got from the Mortenson interview that gave me hope:
1) Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff consults with Mortenson frequently
2) Gen.s Petraeus & McCrystal have read Mortenson's books, require all of their officers to read them too, and have both stated to Mortenson on more than one occasion "there is no military solution in Afghanistan" and "we cannot win here militarily". (There is some hope, if the current administration listens to them, as opposed to how W and Rumy dictated to them and handcuffed their generals, who were lead by the incompetent Franks) ...in acknowledgment of the Greek, Arab, Mongol, British, and Russian past failures over millennium.
3) Afghan village elders LOVE playgrounds and swing sets
4) In 5 areas 100% controlled by Taliban, with no US presence, girls high schools have been built in Afghanistan and are thriving - NOT being demolished or head masters executed.
5) at their schools, they not only teach how to read Arabic in the Qaran (and Dari, or Farsi, or Pashtun, depending on what part of the country they are in) but HOW to Interpret that which they read, so it is NOT just rote memorization and being told what each phrase is supposed to mean, but Opening Up the students' eyes (defeating Fundy Madrassa teachings).
5) Saudi Funding of Taliban has DROPPED in the last 2 years, resulting in Taliban banditry, kidnapping, and things that are odious to the local populace, turning tribal elders (Shuras) and entire villages against the Fundamentalist Sunni advocates of terror.
6) MOTHERS are shaming their sons into quitting the Taliban, after being indoctrinated into it, in Madrasses, as youths. When they get into their 20s, and are becoming common criminals, MOTHERS of these miscreants are convincing them to leave the Taliban and reform their lives (who would've thought it??). Mortenson said that at the schools his NGO has built, they PREFER to hire ex-Taliban as instructors, since ex-Taliban are the STRONGEST and most out-spoken opponents of wrongly interpreted Fundamentalist teachings.
7) Boys who are taught how to read don't teach anyone else, but they don't go off to become Taliban advocates. Girls who are taught to read teach their mothers, their sisters, their villages... and everyone they teach, is a potential powerful force against evil & fearful misinterpretations of the Qaran.

I hope Mortenson's "peaceful insurgency" campaign is successful. For a million dollars (the cost to keep 1 NATO soldier in theater in Afghanistan for a year) he can build and staff 4 high schools. That's pretty damn impressive.

Watching this interview on DVR last night gave me hope.

We shall see.... سنرى

Three Cups of Tea

Three Cups of Tea
I thought I blogged about this earlier this year... but I can't find it... (the memory is the 2nd thing to go!) =P

It was an interesting read, and though it's a little bit dated (written for the most part pre 9-11) it still gives insights into the landscape in Pakistan (socially, psychologically, fundamentally). And since the ISI helped most of the Al Queda leadership escape from Afghanistan into the Pakistani FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) with the green lighting of Tommy Franks and Dick Cheney, this book tells the story about what FATA USED TO be like, before 9-11. Mortenson as former climber, nurse, army private, turned into school builder, philanthropist, girl's education advocate.

Sending Cables?

Former US Army Lieutenant General, now U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry was sending "frantic cables" to the White House over the last week urging against increased troop deployment.

Now Eikenberry is a PhD in poli sci, fluent in Mandarin & English, a capable modern man... but why is he sending cables? Don't they have telephones, email, 'the internets' (it IS a series of tubes you know!)?? Sending Cables... really?



Having read Rashid's tomes on Afghanistan, and the mess that is Pakistan-FATA-Kashmir-Afghanistan-Former-Soviet-Republics-Iran...


I cannot really disagree with the substance of Eikenberry's communications, but cables? Really?

Valley-ism

Earlier this week, The WaPost ran stories about former Marine Captain and then Foreign Service area expert Matthew Hoh resigning from his position in Afghanistan, where as the senior US civilian official in Zabul Province he was trying to investigate "why are we not doing well here?" Simply found, the Afghans locals were helping the Pashtun Fundamentalist Taliban to fight NATO because they were seen as occupiers. Once the US withdrew from rural valleys, the Afghan local tribesmen chaffed at the Taliban occupiers, and started fighting against/ resisting them as well. NPR ran a story on him today as well.

I keep hearing this again and again, with NPR journalist implants who are with Airborne Ranger or Marine or Army units, from Richard Engel of NBC News, from author Jeremy Scahill, from Australian journalist Michael Ware who's been taken hostage by Al Queda and escaped to live and tell about it... and now Matthew Hoh, who has been in two different areas of Afghanistan and worked to try and pacify / mollify / stabilize a country that is still clinging to the 4th century in many rural regions.

My gut feeling is telling me, remaining en masse, in Afghanistan, with armed troops and civilian contractors trying to force "some kind" of centralized government and civilization on a massively diverse, multi-ethnic, fiercely tribal people... is not gonna work. It's just going to kill alot of Americans and drain alot of treasure, without doing anything to destroy Al Queda, who is hiding out in the NW FATA regions of Pakistan. Yes, the Taliban are evil and misogynistic fundamentalists, but they are just the Pashtuns, less than 40% of Afghanistan, and less than 20% of Pakistan ethnically. The rest of the country is surrounded by 3 totalitarian dictator former-soviet regimes on the verge of collapse (Uzbekistan, Tajikstan, Turkmenistan) Iran, Pakistan, and China (that tiny little umbilical chord that is as thin as Maryland's pan-handle, that stretches to the east, touches China). It would be easier, and cheaper (I believe) to just pay off these medieval tribesmen - more than what the Persian Gulf fundies are paying the Taliban, and maintain a very very small presence in the country - and STOP letting Toyota Land Cruisers (the preferred vehicle of the Taliban) and pick up trucks continue crossing Afghanistan's borders. Blow them all up with drone attacks. Goat herders ain't driving Land Cruisers. the more the Republicans scream that Obama stop "dithering" the more I am thinking, "surging" in my troops is a very bad idea.

I finished Ahmed Rashid's "Descent Into Chaos" book at the pool last week. As a Pakistani, Rashid's writing reflects his country's best interests (and his lamenting of its mis-management) first, not the US's best interests first. Now Jeff Sharlet's "The Family" has begun. Some day, I'll get out of 2008 and begin reading 2009 material. Sharlet's writing style, I find to be personal, fluid, easy to follow, and engaging... and prescient. His recounting of the 1934 Longshoremen's strikes in San Francisco, and the language used then, and attitudes expressed 80 years ago, eerily parallel the current shrill cries from the fanatical right in the US today.